Running of the Bears

https://www.bespokepremium.com/get/B.I.G._Tips_-_Running_of_the_Bears.pdf

R2K Bear Market

https://www.bespokepremium.com/get/Bespoke_Chart_of_the_Day_--_Russell_2000_Bear_Market.pdf

Two Week Collapses

https://www.bespokepremium.com/get/B.I.G._Tips_-_Two_Week_Collapses.pdf

10 Day AD Line Heads South

https://www.bespokepremium.com/get/B.I.G._Tips_-_10_Day_AD_Line_Heads_South.pdf

Potential Longs for 150525

Indices to watch

Sectors to Watch

Stocks to Watch

Bond Action

Treasuries have fallen precipitously lately.  Is this the beginning of the end for the great bond run?

It seems like treasuries are taking their queue from bunds which have been bid up from their ridiculously low levels over the past couple of weeks.  In addition it seems like there is a reflation of prices that is going on after the deflation that occurred at the end of last year.

There are still some points which make the case for low bond yields viable:

• QE in Europe is still taking place.
• Central banks around the world have short term interest rates at very low levels.
• The Greece situation may still call for a massive flight to quality.
• China seems to be slowing down and despite their efforts to kick the can down the road there is no telling when that party will be over.
• US economy has shown some unbalanced indications of recovery.

Still one cannot ignore the chart below.

NYT: US Prodcers Cut Rigs

Good article in the New York Times which shows how the current drop in the price of oil is affecting US oil producers.

Some interesting excerpts.

The first one shows just how much production has dropped and how it can affect employees working for these companies.

As for the industry, the signs of retraction are clear. The nation’s rig count, a barometer of oil exploration and production activity, fell by 26 in the week that ended Jan. 2, following a drop of 16 the week before, according to the Baker Hughes service company.

Mr. Triepke predicted that over the next six months, the big three land drilling companies — Helmerich & Payne, Nabors Industries and Patterson-UTI Energy — are “likely to cut approximately 15,000 jobs out of the 50,000 people they currently employ.”

Layoffs might not come immediately however:

Even with the reductions, though, large-scale layoffs across the industry are not expected, at least not immediately. Producers contract their rigs for as long as three to four years, and many companies have hedges that lock in higher prices than the going market rates. In addition, producers often need to drill simply to retain their leases or keep their revenue up.

The final excerpt shows just how many people are directly affected by the drop in crude. 

Nationwide, the oil industry employs about a million people, including extraction, pipeline construction and refining, and the boom has added about 150,000 industry jobs over the last three years, according to Citi Research.

The affects of lower oil will not affect employees working for these oil companies only.  It will hurt the new restaurants, bars, grocery stores, etc. that have opened to accommodate all of these people.